Sunday, March 24, 2013

Benefit from the nature of currency restructuring

Benefit from the nature of currency restructuring
Written by Bluwolf, March 13, 2013 on Dinar Recaps ......
I've been promising this piece for several days, and finally have a few minutes to get this posted.

We've been talking about Basel III (The Global Currency Reset [GCR]) for several weeks, and the fact that there are some 168 currencies due to undergo restructuring of one kind or another. A fair number of these currencies are going to revalue -- some rather significantly -- in the coming weeks and months, and a fair number will devalue (some quite significantly).

Within the last couple of weeks, Christine Lagarde (Managing Director of the IMF) announced a basket of some 15 currencies that would be restructuring within the immediate future. One of the aspects of this GCR that is significant, in my opinion, is the transition away from debt management to asset management.

It is a complete reversal of the kind of banking management and protocols we have seen during the past decades. This requires -- in part -- that the central banks of the participating nations derive their currency values based on the relative asset base of each country.
In a recent report by Ernst & Young (the same financial firm that does the audits for the Central Bank of Iraq) published late in 2012, they state that many international firms which have moved abroad (in order to avoid negative consequences) are returning to their home countries in order to tap new funding sources and retail banking because of Basel III implementation.

These new funding sources and retail banking opportunities are/and will be the product of revalued national currencies.

We've been investigating the possibility of buying some banks here in the U.S. -- one here in the northwest, and one in the southeast -- in order to take advantage of the increased flexibility needed as a result of the IQD opportunity (and other RVing currencies). A conversation with FDIC officials in the past couple of weeks was quite revealing as we discussed the takeover of one bank in particular.

Their questioning was still based on the old premise of "debt management" and not "asset management." My answer to the questions was framed like this, "We are not debt managers; we are asset managers." The difference between the two positions philosophically is that we simply don't think in "fractional banking" terms, or the creation of what I call "funny money" -- fiat currency without any hard asset to back it.

The answer seems to have satisfied these officials and we continue to move forward toward our acquisitions.

So what am I getting at? Currencies world-wide must now have some solid asset to back whatever funds are expended by the nations and by the banks that conduct business in those nations. Gold, silver, various precious metals, minerals, diamonds, oil, natural gas, water (in the ME especially), agricultural produce, dairy, etc., are all examples of assets each nation may or may not have to back its currency.

The more assets a nation has vs. its population base, the greater the value of its currency. In some cases, a nation will increase its asset base by acquiring other, more valuable, currencies and holding them in reserve to back their own currency.

The U.S., for example, holds an astonishing amount of IQD in the Treasury. Why? Because the IQD is easily the most valuable currency in the world. Once the RV has been announced (and it is upon us, literally!) the Treasury will have a 100%-gold backed currency in its reserves to stand behind the USD.

But it is more than that. Iraq doesn't just have gold, it has some of the largest oil reserves in the world; it has some of the best producing diamond sources; its supply of sulfur, for example, is beyond belief; it has vast amounts of clean, pure water the ME desperately needs; and we could go on and on!

Ernst & Young's audit of their resources at the end of 2011 put Iraq's asset value at $76 Trillion -- and that doesn't count the resources and reserves they've discovered since. What I'm saying is that the IQD becomes a very formidable asset all by itself, a reserve currency for other nations to hang onto to support their own currency value.

Many folks have asked me how they can determine what currency or currencies are likely to become good investments. Let me provide you with a methodology you can follow to do your own research and make your own determination.

First, check on FOREX to see what the current exchange rate is of whatever currency you are considering so that you have a reference point for its current value.

Secondly, if you will enter the name of the country in question into a search engine, then select the link that takes you to Wikipedia, it will provide you with a fairly detailed analysis of each country's economy, the asset base from which it operates, and (in some cases) a historical picture of where its currency has been.

One other avenue to explore is to go to the nation's own website -- the one it uses to attract tourism and travel interest. You can get some interesting pictures of the country that way.

Let's take Vietnam as an example, since the VND is one of the upcoming currencies to revalue (and very significantly) in the GCR.

Without getting into unnecessary detail, Wikipedia tells us that Goldman Sachs projected in a 2005 economic forecast Vietnam to become the 17th largest economy in the world by the year 2025. PriceWaterhouseCoopers' 2008 report says that Vietnam may well be the fastest-growing among the world's emerging economies. A few months ago, HSBC predicted that Vietnam's total GDP would surpass the combined total of Norway, Singapore and Portugal within the coming decades.

One key piece of information provided on the Wikipedia website informs us that the VND was devalued three times in 2010 because of high inflation brought on by the global recession. We know from that piece of information that the currency is at an abnormal low in comparison to its previous value. To deal with this problem, Vietnam encouraged international manufacturing companies, IT and high-tech industries to move to the country. Oil companies began to expand their development of the huge quantity of oil in the Gulf of Tonkin, and by the end of 2011, the country was the third-largest oil producer in Southeast Asia.

We also learn from Wikipedia that at the end of 2012, unemployment in Vietnam stood at 4.4%. (Wouldn't we like to see the U.S. return to such levels?! We haven't seen unemployment numbers like that since the Bush era!) Agriculture, which suffered enormous losses during the Vietnam War, has rebounded and the nation now has become a major exporter of rice being second only to Thailand; it has become the world's largest exporter of cashew nuts with a one-third global share; it is the largest producer of black pepper in the world, providing (again) one-third of the world's black pepper; and it also is a major exporter of coffee, tea and rubber.

Juxtapose all of that against the fact that the currency is worth less than $30/M against the USD. In other words, if you could purchase its currency direct from Vietnam's Central Bank, you would pay less than $30 for every million Dong. Factoring in profit margins and costs of acquisition, consider the fact that Wells Fargo currently sells the VND (in small quantities) for $57.80/M.

Were you to purchase a million VND and spend $57.80, and it revalued at 10 cents, your $57.80 investment would produce $100,000.00. The projected RV, by the way, of the Dong is much higher than ten cents, so one doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that this is a spectacular investment -- far better than the IQD, in fact!

Anyway, family, you get the general idea. If you follow these simple steps and know what you're looking for, you'll have a good grasp on how the currency is going to revalue (or devalue, as the case may be) and whether it makes a good potential investment. The GCR has been designed to restructure things so that currencies more nearly reflect their actual asset-backed values. It is only a temporary fix, but it will last long enough for us to accomplish what the Lord has designed in terms of this last great harvest! Let's take advantage of the opportunity.

1 comment:

  1. This was a very interesting read and it is fascinating information in terms of currencies and how they increase or decrease in values. It seems to be a great example of how would should see our own financial situations. The more we have required and hold as an asset the more our portfolio is worth of course and being debt free is also very key.